Mudaaharaadyadda dadweynaha iyo dilalka ciidamadda nabadgelyada

Waxa maalmahii dhawaa ee ina soo dhaafay ka dhacay mid ka mida xaafaddaha koonfurta magaaladda Hargeysa mudaaharaad aad u balaadhan oo looga soo horjeeday in riig ka qodayay ceelal biyo ah koonfurta magaaladda Hargeysa, oo deeq ahaan looga keenay wadanka imaaraadka carabta loo wareejiyo deegaanadda galbeedka Hargeysa, iyada oo hawshii biyo soo saarista ahayd ee uu halkaasi ka waday riigu aan wali laga gun gaadhin. Mudaaharaadkan waxa ku dhintay saddex qof, dad ka badan toban qofna way ku dhawaacameen.

Arrintan dilalka iyo dhaawaca ah ee lagala hortago dadka shacabka ah ee muddaaharaadada samaynaya ayaa ah mid soo noq noqota oo ay caado ka dhigteen ciidamadda nabadgelyada(i.e booliska iyo milatariga) ee Somaliland.Tusaale ahaan, bishii April ee isla sannadkan waxa rasaas nool lagu furay dad shacaba oo mudaaharaad ka sameynayay xaafadda Axmed dhagax, halkaas oo ay ku dhinteen saddex qof, dad kale oo faro badanina ay ku dhaawacmeen.

Marka ay xukuumaddi lumiso kalsoonida shacabkeeda waxa lagu gartaa argagaxa iyo cabsida ay ku muujiso isu soo baxyada iyo isu imaatinka dadweynaha, iyadda oo ka war warta in isu soo baxyadu ay isu rogaan qaar kursiga lagaga tuuro xukuumaddaa lumisay kalsoonidda shacabkeeda.Tan ayaa ah sabata ugu wayn ee ciidamadda nabadgalyada durbadiiba loogu daad guureeyo goobaha isu soo baxyadda dadweynahu ka aloosmaan.

Arrintan soo noq noqota ee cidamadda nabadgelyadu ay ku furaan rasaas nool dad si nabadgalyo ah ugu cabiraya dareeenkooda qaab mudaaharaad ayaa waxa dhiiri galiya dhowr arrimood oo ay masuuliyadeeda leedahay xukuumda Somaliland.

Ta koowaad, xukuumadda waxa ay caado ka dhigatay in marka dilalka noocan ah ay ciidamadu kula kacaan mudaaharaadayaasha, in ay tidhaahdo anaga ayaa qaadanay magta dadkaa ciidamadu dileen, iyada oo haba yaraatee aan wax baadhis ah lagu samayn dambiga meesha ka dhacay iyo cida gaysatay toona. Tani waxa ay keentaa in uu meesha ka baxo la xisaabtanka askarta dambiga ku kacaday, la xisaabtan la’aantaas oo fududaysa in asaskartaasi ama kuwo kale oo la mid ahi ay mar kale ku kacaan dambi la mid ah kan aan lagula xisaabtamin.Waxa kale oo ay tani bixinaysaa sawirka ah in ay xukuumadu liisan u siisay ciidamadda in ay siday doonaan ula dhaqmaan muwaadiniinta isu soo baxyadda sameeya.

Arrinta kale ee dhiirigalisa dilalka ciidamadu kula kacaan dadweynaha ayaa ah tabobar iyo qalab la’aan dhanka ciidamada ah , gaar ahaan kuwa booliska, oo aan loo diyaarin qaabka looga hortago isu soo baxyada dadweynaha. Sida la wada ogsoon yahay, ciidamada loo diro goobaha mudaaharaadyaddu waxa ay ku qalabaysanyihiin qoryo ay ku jirto rasaas nooli. Waxaanay u muuqataa in ay ciidamadu kaga dhabeeyaan xigmada tadhaahda hadii aad dube kaliyaata haysato wax aad la doon doonataa uun masaabiir aad ku garaacdo.Hadii aanu askarigu haysan wax kale oo uu kala hortago dadweynha, wax uu isticmaalaayaa uun qoriga uu gacanta ku sito.

Dalalka dunida ee nolosha muwaadiniintooda qiimeeya waxa ay leeyahiin ciidamo si gaar ah loogu tabobaray ka hortga mudaaharaadadda daweynaha. Ciidamadaasi waxa ay ku hubaysan yihiin qalab aan inta badan halis galin nololsha dadka sida koofiyado iyo gaashaamo dhagaxa ama waxyaabaha ay dad weynahu tuurayaan lagaga gabado, qiiqa dadka kaga ilmaysiiya, booyado biyo aad u xoog badan tuuraya iyo qalab kale oo lagula tacaalo mudaaharaadyadda .

Hadaba iyada oo ay xukuumadda Somaliland sheegato in lacagta ugu badan ee miisaaniyadda dawladu ay ku baxdo dhinaca nabadgelyadda, miyay kari way day in ay dhowr boqol oo ciidamada booliska ah u tababarto ka hortagida mudaaharaadyadda, una soo ibiiso qalabka ku haboon ee lagala hortago mudaaharaadyadda dadweynaha, halka ay ka soo kaa kicinayso ciidamo ku hubaysan qoryaha lidka diyaaraddaha iyo beebeeyo marka ay meel mudaaharaadyo ka dhacaan?

Mise waxa uga qiimo jabnaatay xukuumada Dahaahir Riyaale in ay maalin walba ciidamadeedu ku daadiyaan dhiiga dadweynaha wadooyinka magaalooyinka waaweyn, oo ay dabadeed xukuumaddu dambiga meesha ka dhacay ku dambabasto maggo laga siiyo qoysaska dhibaatadu soo gaadhay cashuurta dadweynaha laga soo urruriyay?

Gebogebodii, maamul xumadda xukuumadda talada haysa ee Daahir Riyaale waxa la filan karaa in ay horseeedi doontaa mudaaharaadyo kale oo dalka ka dhaca waqtiyadda soo socda, laakiin waxa aan la ogayn inta ay xukuumaddu ku sii badbaadi doonto siyaasadda ah ‘horta toogta , dib ayaynu magta ka bixin doonaa e’ ee ay xukuumaddu kula dhaqanto muwaadiniin si nabad ah u muujiniya cabaashooy ay tirsanayaan, haba noqdaan cabashooyinkaasi qaar qaldan mararka qarkood e.

Hadii SNM idin siisay degmo, anaguna.....

Waxa habeen hore Television-ka xukuumadda Somaliland ka baxay hambalyo ay u jeedinaysay marwada madaxwaynahu, Huda Barkhad, bulshada reer Bali Gubadle ee loo magacaabay gobolka loogu wanqalay Hawd.

Hadaba, marwada madaxweynahu markii ay dhamaysan hambalyada ayay waxa ay sii raacisay in hadii ''SNM idin siisay degmo, anaguna waxa aanu idin siinay gobol!''

Arrintan ayaa runtii dad badan ka fajicisay. Maxay uga jeeday marwadu eragya ''anaguna''? waa ayo cida ay lahady anagu? Ma waxa ay u jeeday iyada iyo odaygeeda? Mise waxay u jeeday anaga oo xukuumadda ah? Mise waxaaba la odhan karaa waxa ay isbarbardhigaysay anaga oo ah.......iyo SNM?

Waxa caqliga saxa ahi ina siinayaa in aanay ''anagunada'' uga jeedin hadaanu nahay xukuumadda, waayo kuma hadasho magaca xukuumadda marawadu oo qof mushahar qaata ayaa hawshaa shaqo ku leh.

Marka taas laga reebo jawaabtu waxa ay noqonaysaa labada kale mid uun. In ay uga jeedayay ''anagunada'' iyada iyo odaygeeda, taas oo ay u badan tahay, marka aynu eegno ku tagrifalka awooda dalka ee ay caadaysteen hadba cida markaas xukunka u haysa ummada iyo ta kale ee kaba sii daran ee noqon karta in ay SNM is barbar dhigaysay marwada madaxwaynahu, oo ay u jeeday waxa SNM idin siisay waxa aanu aniga iyo odaygayga oo reer Boorama ah (i. e oo aan halgankii ka qayb gelin) idin siinay ayaa ka wanaagsan, sidaas daraadeed anagaa SNM idiinka wanaagsan , oo idiin dhaana reer Bali Gubadloooow!!!

Entertainment v. propaganda

After a long day’s work, I wanted to rest and enjoy the Euro 2008 match between Italy and France on Somaliland National TV last night. Most of the people in Hargeisa watch these pirated games on SLTV.

However, the game was delayed by the not-so-uncommon propagandistic TV coverage of delegation this delegation that, which visit Somaliland for reasons at variance with those that the government ‘spin doctors’ always tell the public.

Last night it was the visit of a state minister from UK that ruined the more entertaining game and delayed it by more than 25 minutes!

Damn it!

A reflection of the weekly Geeljire Daljire piece

Abdillahi Geeljire and his weekly satirical, albeit polemical, dialogue he writes from Canada is now widely read on various websites and Haatuf newspaper in Somaliland. Geeljire craftily presents his piece in the form of a conversation between his two main antagonists, Dube and Dolaal.

The setting is a Merfrish where Dube and Dolaal frequent in the afternoons to socialize by chewing the narcotic leaves of Kat.

Dolaal supports the government and defends it by questioning Dube on his two cents. He paints the picture of a man who is satisfied with the direction things political are going in Somaliland.

In contrast, Dube represents the political opposition and always finds fault with the government, questioning its motives in every move. He is very incisive in his analysis of the political developments on the ground in Somaliland.

The piece is highly entertaining and informative. But the story does not stop there.

To appreciate the piece more, let us look at the writer.

Mr. Geeljire is a very educated man who is originally from Hargeisa. Like many individuals in positions of power in Somaliland, Mr. Geeljire lived long years of exile in Canada. He was among droves of exiles who flew all the way from Europe and north America to live the 'Somaliland dream' , after peace returned to the area.

The prolonged civil wars and poverty in Somalia forced great number of Somalis to seek asylum in Europe and North America. Many of these exiles failed to fully integrate into their host countries because of cultural barriers, discrimination, lack of enterprise and, perhaps, sheer laziness on their part. As a result, many work in menial jobs or live off the unemployment and other welfare schemes in their host countries.

When multiparty election was introduced in Somaliland, many returned home to join the newly established political parties and participate in the government.

When Mr. Geeljire arrived in Hargeisa, he joined UDUB political party and become one of its greatest campaigners and party activist. He was one of the luminaries who were responsible for election of the incumbent president of Somaliland, Mr. Riyaale. Mr. Geelire remained as one of the favorite sons of UDUB, until the parliamentary elections of May 2005 in Somaliland.

When the parliamentary election approached, Mr. Geeljire hoped, with a good reason, that UDUB will return the favor and include him in their party candidate lists. However, as they say all politics is local but Mr.Geeljire failed to realize this.

As we remember, in the last and the only parliamentary election in Somaliland, submission of candidates to political parties was the responsibility of the tribes of the respective candidates. This was the case because the people in the country vote on the basis of tribal allegiances more than anything else. Abdillahi Geeljire failed, unfortunately, to win the ticket of his tribe. For reasons known only to themselves, they selected a fresh face from Bristol as their candidate in UDUB and gave Mr. Geeljire the boot.

Soon after, Geeljire joined the opposition KULMIYE political party and started to play 'DUBE', seeing evil in every move of the UDUB-led government in Somaliland.

I enjoy reading Mr.Geeljire's weekly Daljire dispatch, but always with a pinch of salt

Awil, the sadist....

Xussien Ali Dualle (Awil) never ceases to amuse me! His latest press conference was very interesting in several ways. It was full of historical facts, personal slander and blatant propaganda against his political rivals.

Awil indeed was a bit truthful about the political development of Somaliland and the internal politicking of the various Issaq tribes since 1960. No one can deny the political culture of the Issaqis with respect to their attitude to political incumbents in a given time in the country. What ex-presidents of Somaliland, Mohamed Ibrahim Egal and Abdirahman Ahmed Ali, undergone in the hands of opposing coalition of Issaq tribes can hardly be denied. In this connection, Awil seems to have put those facts in a historical perspective. The Issaq tribes never learned of how to respect their leaders and statesmen. Political leaders are viewed as representatives and protectors, solely, of the interests of their tribes.

Awil talked about the SNM oldies like Muse Bihi and Mohamed Kahin and reminded them again of their political miscalculations and tribalistic tendencies. Both of these oldies are known for their erratic statements in the past and their spear-heading roles in the terrible civil wars of Somaliland in 1991-1997.

Awil also suggested to Ahmed Silanyo, the chairman of Kulmiye party, that they should both, i.e. Awil and Silanyo, retire from politics; a suggestion that Silanyo is unlikely to heed given his steadfast belief that he is the next PRESIDENT of Somaliland.

In the press conference also, Awil threatened Dr. Gaboose with an exile if he insists on his unregistered newly established political party (Qaran). He reminded Dr. Gaboose of the fact that he was responsible for putting the firs president of Somaliland, Abdirahman Ahmed Ali, on a plane to Mogadishu, while denying him to meet with President Mohamed Ibrahim Egal before doing so.

O my, politics in Somaliland would have been very boring indeed without people like Awil!!!

Somaliland: khilaafyo tiro badan oo khalkhal galin kara amaanka iyo xasiloonidda

Waxa iska soo tarayay todobaadyadan ugu dambeeyay Somaliland xaaladdo murugsan oo ay sababeen khilaafyo farabadan oo oo ka soo burqanaya jihooyin kala duwan , khilaafyadaas oo saameyn ku yeelan kara aminigii iyo xasilooniddii ay Somaliland kaga duwanayd gobollo badan oo ka tirsan dalweynahii la isku odhan jiray Soomaaliya. Khilaafaadkan waxa loo kala qaadi kaara qaar ka dhexeeye xukuumadda iyo hayaddaha kale ee dawliga ah, gaar ahaan baarlamaanka ; qaar u dhaxeeya xukuumadda iyo saxaafadda gaarka loo leeyahay iyo qaar u dhaxeeya beelaha ku wada dhaqan Somaliland oo sababay colaado sokeeye oo dad badani ku naf waayeen.

Khilaafaadka xukuumadda iyo baarlamaanka

khilaafaadka iyo isla jaan qaadi la’aanta ka dhextaagan baarlamaanka iyo xukuumadda Somaliland ma aha kuwo maanta bilowday, balse waxa uu soo taagnaa ilaa iyo xiligii nidaamka doorsahadda lagu soo doortay xubnaha kuraasta ku fadhiya hada ee baarlamaanka, kuwaas oo bedelay baarlamaan beleedkii ka horeeyey. Horaantiiba baarlamaanka iyo xukuumaddu waxa ay isku qabsadeen, buuq aad u badanina ka dhashay doorashada shirgudoonka cusub ee baarlamaanka. Tani waxa ay ku dhaamatay markii dambe in ay shirgudoonka ku guulaystaan xisbiyada mucaaradka ee UCID iyo Kulmiye oo isu bahaystay si u yeeshaan shirgudoonka. Waxa mar kale khilaaf soo kale dhexgalay xukuumadda iyo barlaamanka markii ay mudanayaashu diideen in ay ansixiyaan miisanayidii sanadkii hore ee xukuumadda, iyaga oo dalbanayay in ay xukuumaddu wax ka soo badasho qodobo ku jiray odoroska miisaaniyada, balse ay markii dambe golahu si duuduub iyo xaal mastuur ah isu dhaafiyeen. Tani waxa ay durba shaki ku riday dad badan oo rajo weyn ka qabay in baarlamaankani uu ka duwanaan doono kii ka horeeyay, iyadda oo ay arrinta miisaaniyadduna tijaaboba u ahayd qaabka ay u shaqeyn doonaan baarlamaankan doorshada ku yimi mudooyinka soo socda.

Arrinta kale ee abuurtay khilaaf soo kala dhex gala baarlamaanka iyo xukuumadda waxa ay ahayd markii Amina Weris oo ah marwadda gudoomiyaha xisbiga mucaaradka ah ee Kulmiye la sheegay in shaqo ay ka heshay hayadda CARE International xukuumadu is hortaagtay. Iyaga oo daba socda arrintan ayay baarlamaanku waxa ay soo saareen mooshin lagu dalbanayo in Aamina Weris shaqada si degdeg ah loogu celiyo, mooshinkaas oo ay ku gacmo saydhay xukuuumadu iyada oo ku eedaysay baarlamaanka cusub in uu kala garan waayay shaqadiisa iyo shaqada xukuumadda.

Dhawaan waxa sidoo kale golaha baarlamaanku uu dib ugu celiyay xukuumadda xisaab celintii miisaaniyad sanadeedkii 2005, taas oo baarlamanku sheegay in ay ka maqan tahay xisaab celintaa lacago badan oo ay ahayd in lagu soo daro. Ayaamo yar uun ka dib arrintan ayaa waxa hadana baarlamaanku ku gacan saydhay in ay ansixiyaan xubnaha gudidda doorashooyinka ee cusub, xubnahan oo badali doona xubanahii hore ee waqtigoodii dhamaaday. Baarlamaanku waxa ay dib ugu celiyeen xukuumada xubnahaasi, si ay u soo dhamaystirto xukuumaddu liiska oo uu ka maqnaa xubintii ay magacaabi lahaayeen xisbiga mucaaradka ah ee Kulmiye, oo aan isagu u gudbin xukuumadda magaca xubinkaas.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyada oo aanay xukuumaddu wax jawaab ah weli ka bixin arrintan ayaa waxa golaha la keenay mooshin cusub oo laba sanno loogu kordhinayo xubnahii hore ee guddidda doorashooyinka ee waqtigoodu dhamaaday, mooshinkaas oo baarlamaanku si buuxda u ansixiyay. Tani waxa ay khilaaf hor leh soo kala dhex galisay xukuumadda iyo baarlamaanka.

Hadaba khilaafyadan is daba jooga ah ee ka dhexeeya xukuumadda iyo baarlaamaanku waxa sababa ugu horeynba aqaan daro la xidhiidha dhanka maamulka dawliga ah iyo wada shaqeynta golayaasha dawladda oo saameysa labada dhinacba. Waxa kale oo sababa khilaafyadan had iyo jeer siyaasaddo daaha dabadiisa laga hago , siyaasaddahaas oo sal ku leh dano qabali ah iyo ku jiq sii ka soo burqata dhanka xisbiyadda ay ka kala tirsan yihiin mudanayaashu, kuwaas oo loo aaneeyo hab dhaqanka sharci ka boodka ah ee baraalmanku ku kaco mararka qaar.

Dhanka xukuumadda ayaa iyaduna mararka qaar isku dayda in ay baarlaamaanka ku duduucdo arrimo lagu muran sanyahay ama si toos ahba isu hor taagta soo jeedimo sharci ah oo kasoo baxa golaha baarlaamaanka, mararka qaarna kuba bixisa lacagaha dadku ugu yeedhaan ‘dhaameelka’ si ay u fushato arrimahaas.

Khilaafka xukuumadda iyo Haatuf media group

Waxa khilaaf sidoo kale ka dhex oogmay dhawaanahan mid ka mid ah saxaafadda gaarka loo leeyahay iyo xukuumadda. Khilaafkan waxa sababay qoraalo si xidhiidhsan in mudo ahba ugu soo baxay jariidada Haatuf ee ka soo baxda Harageysa, oo diiradda lagu saarayay musuqmaasuq farabadan oo lagu xidhiidhinayo xukuumadda Somaliland iyo gaar ahaan qoyska madaxtooyadda. Qoraaladdani waxa ay sababeen in muddo ku dhow laba bilood ay jeelka ugu xidhnaadaan mulkiilahii Haatuf iyo laba qof oo ka tirsan shaqaalahiisa.

Waa arrin iska macruuf ilaa heerka uu musumaasuqu ragaadiyay dhaqaalaha kooban ee Somaliland iyo sida uu ugu baahay dhamaan goobaha maamul ee xukuumadda . Dhanka kale, musuqmaasuqu ma aha mid la kowsaday xukuumadda talada haysa ee maanta, oo ay hada uun daahfureen suxufiyiinta Haatuf . Runtii, dad badani waxa ay kuba xidhiidhiyaan musuqmaasuqa ku baahay dalka hab dhaqanka ismaamul ee Somaliland qaadatay , kaas isku badhxay nidaamaka ismaamul ee casriga ah iyo ka dhaqanka Soomaalida ee qabaliga ku salaysan, oo isagu la sheego in uu dhiiri galiyo musuqmaasuqa.

Arrinta la is waydiin karaa waxay tahay sababta keentay xiligan in si aad ah loo buun buuniyo, loona soo faqo musuqmaasuq lagu eedayno maamulka madaxweyne Riyaale. Waxa in badan arrintaas jawaabteedu ku soo urruraysaa loolanka awooda ee sii xoogaysanaya ee u dhaxeeya xisbiyadda mucaaraddka iyo xukuumadda , iyadda oo xisbiyadda mucaardaka ahi ay si dadban ugu adeegsadaan saxaafadda odorosyadooda siyaasadeed, taas oo mararka qaar saxaafadu ku lumiso dhex dhexaadnimadeeda. Loolankan awooda ee u dhaxeeya xukuumadda iyo xisbiyadda mucaaradka ahi waxa uu marayaa heer la odhan karo waxa uu saameyn ku yeelan karaa xasiloonida iyo amaanka Somaliland, iyada oo ay meesha ka baxday xidhiidhkii wada shaqeyneed ee asxaabta iyo xukuumaddu.

Sida xaqiiqadu tahay in badan oo ka mid ah shaqsiyaadka sida aadka ah ugu eedeeya xukuumadda musuqmaasuqu waxa ay ka mid ahaayeen maamuladdii Somaliland soo maray, mana aha kuwo dibada ka joogay musuqmaasuqa ay hada ku eedeeyaan maamulka talada haya. Tani hadana u cudurdaarimayso musuqmaasuqu aadka ugu baahay xukuumadda talada haysa ee Somaliland.

Khilaafka Haatuf iyo xukuumadda waxa sidoo kale ku kale qaybsantay beesha uu ka soo jeedo mulkiilaha Haatuf, iyada oo qayb ka mid ah beeshaasi ay xaalka ka bixisay eedaymaha musuqmaasuq ee ay jariidadu ku xidhiidhisay qoyska madaxtooyadda , halka qayb kalena ay ku gacan saydhay isla xaalkaas.

Khilaafyo sababay colaado oo ku soo badanaya Somaliland

Todobaadaydii ugu danbeeyay waxa sidoo kale iska soo daba dhacayay wararka dhiiloda ah oo ku saabsan colaado iyo dagaalo ka oogmay gudaha jamhuuriyadda Somaliland, colaadahaas oo intooda badan la sheego in ay salka ku hayaan aanooyin qabiil iyo khilaafaad ku salaysan lahaanshaha deegaamo. Dagaaladaas oo ka kala dhacay gobolka Sool , Saaxil iyo kililka 5naad ee Itoobiya ayaa waxa ugu khatar badnaa ka ka dhacday deegaanadda Daroor ee kililka shanaad ee Itoobiya ,ee u dhaxeeyey beelaha Garxajis ee wada dega deegaanadaas.

Colaadan Daroor iyo deegaaandda u dhow ayaa waxa ay sababtay dhimasho iyo dhaawac aad u fara badan oo hafiyay cusbitaaladda magaalooyinka Burco iyo Hargeysa. Beelaha ku dagaalamaya deegaanka Daroor ayaa waxa sidoo kale ay wada degaan gudaha Somaliland, taas oo keeni karta khatarta ah in uu ku soo faafo dagaalku gudaha magaalooyinka waaweyn ee Somaliland.

Dagaalka todobaakan ugu dambeeyey ka soo cusboonaaday jiidaasi waxa uu salka ku hayaa kuwo kale oo ka dhacay deeganadaasi badhtamahii sannadkii hore.Dagaaladaas oo demintiooda ay ka qayb qateen ergeeyinkii uga badnaa ee goob colaaddeed isugu yimaada ilaa inta la og yahay taariikhda deegnaadan ayaa waxa ay ka kala yimaadeen dhamaan goboladda Somaliland, iyo weliba kililka shanaad ee Itoobiya. Ergooyinkaasi waxa ay ku guulaysteen in ay joojiyaan xabadda , heshiisna dhexdhigaan beelaha ku daagalamay deegaankaas. Hasayeeshee waxa ay dad badani sheegaan in aanay ergooyinkaasi wax daba socod ah ku samayn sidii loo dhamaystiri lahaa go’aanadii heshiis ee laga gaadhay colaada ka oogantay jiidaas.

Dagaalkan ugu dambeeyay ayaa waxa uu ahaa mid aad uga xoog badan kuwii dhacay badhtamahii sanadkii hore, dhowr goorna iska soo daba noqnoqday. Dagaalkani waxa uu sabababay dhimasho iyo dhaawac aad u badan, iyadda oo ay hadana mar labaad ay u soo gurmadeen ergooyin ka badan kuwii hore u tagay jiidaas, sanadkii hore. Waxa sidoo kale imika la kala dhex dhigay dhinacyadda dagaalamaya ciidamo ka yimi kililka shanaad ee Itoobiya.

Waxa ay dadbadani is waydiinayaan goorta ay heerkan aadka u xun gaadhay colaada u dhexaysa labadan beelood oo iyagu xulufo iyo ood wadaag ba ahaa mudo aad u dheer dhanka Itoobiya iyo Somaliland-ba, horena aanay u dhex ool wax aano ah iyo arrimo kale oo ay isku khilaafsanaayeen. Tani waxa ay keentay shakiga ah in meesha ay ku jiraan arrimo siyaasadeed oo aan weli guntooda la gaadhin, arrimahaas oo ay ka shidaal qaadanayso colaada hada ka dhex oogan labadaas beelood ee ood wadaagta ah.

Gebogebadii, khilaafyaddan ku soo siyaadaya gudaha Somaliland hadii aan loo maarayn si taxadir badani ku jiro waxa ay hubaashii khalkhal wayn gelin karaan amaanka iyo xasiloonidda Somaliland ee aan lugaha sidaas aan u sii buurayn ku tukubaysa.

The consequences of Ethiopian armed intervention in Somalia

As usual southern Somalia continues to be caught in the cyclical violence and lawlessness that has been associated with that part of the country for the past 16 years. The recent insertion of foreign armies into the Somali domestic political crises, however, added another dangerous dimension to the violence. The Ethiopia army, in cahoots with the US, invaded Somalia, to dislodge Islamic Courts Union from the areas that they controlled for six months in the South.

The Islamic courts controlled large swathes of Southern Somalia, after they had expelled the militias of the rival warlords from Mogadishu and the surrounding regions. These warlords were responsible for much of the lawlessness that prevailed in the south for the last decade and half.

The Ethiopians, allegedly ‘invited’ by the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and bankrolled by the Americans, routed the Union of Islamic Courts militias from the areas they controlled in the South. In few days’ time, Islamic Courts militia fled into the jungles of Ras Camponi, near the Somali border with Kenya. Ethiopian tanks rolling in the streets of Mogadishu were quite a sight for many Somalis who considered Ethiopia as their ‘enemy’ in the Horn.

Ethiopia and Somalia had very destructive relations since the independence of latter in 1960. The two states fought two bloody wars over the Somali inhabited Ogaden region in Ethiopia. The Somali state claimed that the Ogaden was part of greater Somalia and there existed an atmosphere of hostility between the two countries. In addition, the Ethiopians were considered by many Somalis as denying the right of self-determination to the people in the Ogaden.

The Ethiopians have also been playing a very Machiavellian role in Somalia since the implosion of the latter in 1991. The Ethiopians, time and again, sided with political groups of whatever bent who opposed the emergence of any form of centralized rule in Somalia. This has been in line with Ethiopia’s national interests as viewed by the present rulers of that country. The terrible experience that they had at the hands of the Somali state at its peak must have worried the Ethiopians about the nature of central government that would finally emerge in the territory if its ‘irredentist’ neighbor in the east. In pursuit of this agenda, the Ethiopians always found willing Somali partners, who usually had their own domestic agendas in the country.

The Americans, on their part, had good relations with the military regime of Barre before its demise in 1991. They had military bases in Somalia in service of their global rivalry with the Soviets, who were also anchored in neighboring Ethiopia at the time. The Americans left when the military regime fell and the country started to disintegrate into fiefdoms ruled over by rival warlords. The Americans come back two years later at the head of massive humanitarian mission, to facilitate ‘food delivery’ to the starving Somalis affected by the civil war.

The Americans had serious confrontation with one of the local warlords in Mogadishu and in a bungled mission to capture him, 13 American rangers were killed. Following incident, the Americans left Somalia to itself and ignored the terrible civil strife that the country descended into. The terrorist bombings of American embassies in east Africa once again renewed American interest in the country. The Americans suspected that some of the operatives behind the attacks were sheltering in the lawless country.

The Americans established unholy alliances with the local warlords in the country, to hunt the Al Qa’eda operatives allegedly hiding in the country. In an attempt to formalize their relations and milk more funds from the Americans, a group of warlords created an anti-terrorism coalition in Somalia in early last year. The consequences of that coalition and the massive upheaval it precipitated in the form of the Islamic Courts revolution and the Ethiopian/US intervention in the country need not be recounted here.

At this juncture, we may ask ourselves what are or will be the consequences of Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, given the fact that Ethiopia, unlike the United States, is located within the same sub-region with Somalia, and that Ethiopia shares a long disputed border with the former. To address these issues, let’s divide them on their external and internal dimensions.

The external consequences of the armed intervention

Externally, Ethiopia seems to have set a precedent of ‘preventive war’ in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia crossed the border of an internationally recognized state on the pretext that it posed a threat, perceived or real notwithstanding, to its peace and security. Never before has a state in the Horn so brazenly invaded another on the basis of ‘perceived’ future threat to its security. This has been an anomaly even by the standards of the tortured state relations in the Horn, where there abounds plenty of grounds for inter-state wars in the sub-region.

Given the dynamic political situation in the Horn, the Ethiopian state will not be insulated in the future from a ‘preventative war’ agianst it from one or collective of its neighboring states .

Ethiopia also worsens its cozy, albeit unidirectional, relations with Somaliland as they continue to prop up President Yussuf’s TFG in Somalia. Pres. Yussuf comes from the rival Puntland region, which claims parts of Sool and Sanaag regions that fall within the borders of former British Somaliland Protectorate and the current borders of the unrecognized state of Somaliland. President Yussuf also claims that he is the legitimate president of all Somalia, including Somaliland. This incenses the government of Somaliland, and there is already a wave of discontent with the behavior of the Ethiopians in Somalia.

The government of Somaliland naively believed that they are next to no one when it comes to its relations with Ethiopia. But the recent developments in Somalia and Ethiopia’s role in it was a rude awakening for them.

The internal consequences of the armed intervention

Internally, the Ethiopians took a shot at the dream of ‘greater Somalia’. By occupying the capital of its long term enemy, Mogadishu, and bombing its international airport with impunity, the Ethiopians rode a rough shod over Somali nationalism in general, and the dream of ‘greater Somalia’ in the future, in particular.

The Ethiopian armed intervention also ‘imposed’ on Somalia the rule of a potential tyrant who was dreaming to rule the country for more than a generation. Thanks to the Ethiopians, Yussuf’s dream seems to have been finally realized. But this is not the end of the story.

Many people from Mogadishu belief that their rival Puntlanders came on the back of Somalia’s traditional ‘enemy’, Ethiopia, to rule over them. These inhabitants are bent on resisting that rule at any costs. This will have a serous repercussion on future co-existence and the peaceful interaction betweeen these groups in the South. The recent incident in Guriceel bears witness to this development.

The dispersed operatives of the Islamic Courts union, some of them lying low in the capital, have also started to introduce into the country an Iraqi-like resistance tactics, to fight Ethiopian troops and those of the ‘TFG’ in the capital. This development will be further encouraged by the reluctance of the African states to contribute troops to support the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.

Conclusions:

The recent Ethiopian armed intervention in Somalia had serious consequences for the future of Somalia. The armed intervention disturbed the balance of power of various tribal groups in the country and poisoned the peaceful co- existence of these groups in the future.

It worsened the suspicions and age old enemity between the peoples of Ethiopia and Somalia. It also strengthened the trend of opportunistic wars alternating between the two neighboring states of Somalia and Ethiopia.

Lastly, the Ethiopian armed intervention imported into the sub region the US made doctrine of ‘preventive war’. This will add to the poisoned atmosphere and the tortured states relations in the Horn, and will further destabilize the region.